Will Cunliffe
Strange Saudi allocations, rumours on ADNOC's ninth tender, India's Russian lifeline is in danger and Japan plans for supply diversification.
The eighties are truly back! Flat price dropped hard yesterday evening, from around $88.50 to near $86 within an hour. Through today’s Asian session, dropping to $86.18/bbl by the close. The prompt spread collapsed to – down to under a dollar for the first time this month! The Americans are working to ensure the narrative is heard of ample oil flowing through Hormuz. And Iran and Oman are grinding towards a deal for a “temporary navigational corridor” through the Strait. For now, vessel transits are still struggling to remain in double digits. Sep Brent/Dubai has rebounded from its extended downtrend, climbing to a high near $3.50 today. However, the Sep/Oct Brent/Dubai box continues its grind lower regardless. From near $1 in early-August sessions, it’s dropped to almost -$2.20 today. Every single session since 14 August has been in the red! More Saudi crude is heading into Europe, weighing on Brent (particularly Forties in the Dated basket) and Chinese buying is picking up, thereby supporting Dubai structure.
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