Will Cunliffe
Research Analyst, The Officials
Déjà vu… again!
Serious tightening! Iran and the US coming to blows again... Cracks blow up this afternoon
Serious tightening! Iran and the US coming to blows again... Cracks blow up this afternoon
It’s like we wound back time. Trump’s talking about seizing Kharg Island and hoping to avoid ‘needing’ to strike desalination plants. He says there’s nothing Iran can do and attacks tonight are all but guaranteed. Brent even breached $80/bbl for the first time since 22 June.
Iran threatened to close the Strait again, while the US is hinting at imposing its naval blockade again. Several vessels have abandoned their passages. The Peering Eye shows no ships presently crossing the Strait via the southern Omani route. Even so, there are still ships crossing via the Iranian route in the north, in both directions, with tankers and other ship types making the transit. The physical market tightened suddenly today, as Dated Brent spiked on the news. CFDs showed the biggest moves, as the late-July and August contracts surged into positivity, having been assessed deeply negative along the curve yesterday. CFD rolls are now backwardated from August onwards – while the Brent futures curve solidifies too.
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