Will Cunliffe
Research Analyst, The Officials
Blow for blow!
China is back in the Dubai window! The US and Iran keep whacking each other, marine fuel prices in the eastern Mediterranean remain extremel
China is back in the Dubai window! The US and Iran keep whacking each other, marine fuel prices in the eastern Mediterranean remain extremely elevated and China has problems.
The fire is hot! The US and Iran keep whacking each other, as Iran retaliated by hitting US bases in Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. The Americans hit Iran again – and the Israelis joined in this time. Sirens were sounded in Bahrain again around lunchtime local time. It seems Trump is telling the truth for once that the ceasefire is “over”. You can’t be faulted for thinking the deal is dead in the water after Trump’s Truth Social bombardment and the exchange of real bombardments. After some short stop outs, Brent has failed to push convincingly above $80 and fell back to $76.88/bbl by the Asian close. Traffic in the Strait has seriously thinned out – at least that which is pinging AIS. There are only a couple of tankers passing along the northern route, along with a handful of cargo and container ships. Even so, markets are clearly not pricing a full-blown supply crisis again. So far, tanker transits are down hard but energy infrastructure hasn’t been targeted.
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