Edward Hayden-Briffett
Saudi OSPs are out, Murban's liquidity is thinning, refiners will keep an eye on platinum prices and de-dollarization is gaining momentum.
Aramco’s September OSPs are out! Arab Extra Light and Light were cut by 50c/bbl, while Medium and Heavy were both hiked by $1.25/bbl. Arab Light for September will be priced at the Oman/Dubai average minus $2.00/bbl. The average Dubai physical premium fell by 90c/bbl m/m and it implies a larger cut in OSPs. But product cracks in Asia are still strong and the market is in a mess due to the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb disruptions and needs more oil from reliable suppliers. Therefore, the Saudi term pricing didn’t need to come down as hard as the Dubai average did. Nevertheless, the cut puts the Arab Light OSP at a new low for the period we’ve been tracking since beginning publication in summer 2024. Asian cracks are still quite appetising, with the Sep Flux indicative refining margin at near $34.50/bbl and Asia’s refiners are clearly hungry for the crude. Reiterating, there was no need to cut as deeply as the structure change implied.
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