Edward Hayden-Briffett
The Q1 2026 volumes review is here alongside with the forecast for the quarters and years ahead
The first quarter of 2026 broke several records and was truly unprecedented in the oil market. The physical disruption caused by the US-Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz cascaded through the oil derivatives market and provoked record levels of trading. Geopolitical events drove trading activity inrnthe first quarter, from Venezuela to rising Iran tensions, leading to extremely violent price action across crude and product contracts. We feature the Trump Impact Factor (TIF) to assess the effect of Trump’s rhetoric on the market as he demonstrated more willingness to follow through on threats of action. This broke the market out of its period of paralysis in Q4 2025.
The Officials publish outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
We invite you to read our reports, which are published twice a day, reflecting closing values at 16:30 Singapore time (SGT) and at 16:30 London time (GMT/BST). For any comments, please reach out to us through the emails provided in the signed documents.