Will Cunliffe
Trump's TACO causes prices to fall but cracks remain supported, traffic in Hormuz is non-existent and the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline will flow.
Welcome to August! And perhaps a new month will bring peace. At least it didn’t kick off with a week-long onslaught of bombings, as Trump was seemingly talked down from the precipice. It’s become increasingly clear the Americans’ regional allies are fed up of the conflict. The Saudis were firmly opposed to the possible mega attack and reportedly even threatened to sell US Treasury holdings, to fund repairs in case of retaliation. They’ve had enough! Markets loved them telling Donald no! Brent futures dropped to near $83, S&P 500 futures opened 0.5% up, US treasury yields solidified with the 10-year down to under 4.7%. Massaging markets is a very particular skillset… Forget reality and listen to the party line: negotiations are going well, the outlines of a deal are in place – ignore the other side saying none of this is true. Instead, Iran says it is negotiating with Oman over Hormuz.
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