Will Cunliffe
The oil is flowing! India has already raised its crude imports to pre-war levels, wholesale and retail prices are easing in Asia while China is getting concerned about the fragmentation of global supply chains.
The Strait of Hormuz remains open despite the friction between the US and Iran over Israel's continued bombardment of Lebanon. The northern shipping lanes are rather busy – over ten tankers were sailing with active AIS transponders this Monday morning. AIS-signals show no passages through the southern route, but occasionally some ships go dark and puncture across the Strait. Iran continues to put in place systems to control the movement much to the annoyance of many countries and Trump himself. And the weekend negotiations in Switzerland were between bad and nasty. Trump threatened to kidnap the Iranian negotiators among other threats. And Lindsey Graham, a US senator asserted, after talking to Trump, the US would take over the Strait and put fees on SOH, if the talks fail.
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